Climate Induced Flooding and Its Implications on Property Values in Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines climate change and its implications on property values in Ibadan, Nigeria,
drawing insights from estate surveying and valuation firms. Using the 2024 Nigerian Institution
of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV) directory, 55 firms were purposively sampled, with
38 valid responses retrieved, representing a 69.1% response rate. The majority of firms were
small to medium sized, with limited staff capacity, yet over 80% managed property portfolios,
underscoring their central role in Ibadan’s real estate sector. Findings reveal that structural
damage (Mean = 4.1, SD = ±0.59), increased management costs (Mean = 4.0, SD = ±1.03), and
increased maintenance costs (Mean = 4.0, SD = ±0.72) are the most critical impacts of climate
change on property. Other notable effects include changes in land use (Mean = 3.8), shifts in
market demand (Mean = 3.6), decreased property value (Mean = 3.4), and resident
displacement (Mean = 3.4). A ten year trend (2014–2023) shows that while property incomes
have risen; residential income from ₁20.9 million to ₁25.3 million, commercial income from
₁121.7 million to ₁446.6 million, and industrial income from ₁4.5 million to ₁559.8 million,
capital values have remained stagnant or declined, reflecting suppressed asset appreciation in
climate vulnerable areas. The study concludes that climate change is exerting profound and
uneven pressures on Ibadan’s property market, with rising operational burdens and reduced
long term investment potential. It recommends that estate surveyors integrate climate risk into
valuation models, property managers adopt adaptive maintenance practices, and planning
authorities enforce development controls while investing in resilient infrastructure.
Strengthening climate informed governance and professional practice is vital to sustaining
property values in Ibadan amid escalating environmental risks.