Fueling the Divide: An Analysis of Cooking Fuel Choices and their Contribution to Urban- Rural Health Disparities from Air Pollution in Nigeria

Abstract

Household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuel combustion remains a critical public health
challenge in Nigeria, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality. This study investigates
the disparities in reliance on polluting cooking fuels between urban and rural populations. Using a
longitudinal dataset from the World Health Organization (WHO) spanning from 1990 to 2022, this
paper employs both exploratory data analysis and a machine learning approach to analyze the key
drivers of this public health issue. The analysis reveals a stark and persistent divide: while urban
areas show a gradual decline in the use of polluting fuels, rural areas exhibit a near-static reliance
rate exceeding 95%. This profound inequity directly impacts several Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), including SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean
Energy), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). The associated health burden is substantial, with
HAP responsible for over 50,000 attributable deaths annually. A Random Forest regression model
showed that the year of data collection was the strongest predictor, indicating that the slow shift
toward cleaner fuels is occurring mainly in urban areas. These findings underscore the urgent need
for targeted, inclusive policy interventions focused on Nigeria's rural population to mitigate the
severe health consequences of HAP and bridge the profound energy divide.